Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has gone further and faster in gutting US climate action than in his last term.

On his first day in office, the president signed an executive order again announcing the exit of the US from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement. He has repeatedly suggested that the Agreement hurts America’s economic interests. By exiting, the US will join Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only countries not committed to the global deal, which was adopted in 2015 to keep the global average temperature well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and ideally no higher than 1.5C. 

The move has dealt a fresh blow to international climate cooperation in the middle of a critical decade, when faster greenhouse gas emissions cuts are needed to avoid the worst of the climate crisis. ‘With the largest historical emitter not at the table, how could that not impact what the world is able to achieve on the climate front in decreasing global emissions?’ says Courtney Federico, Associate Director for International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress. 

The withdrawal by the US may reduce the pressure on other large emitters to ratchet up their climate ambitions. Most countries missed a February deadline to submit a new set of climate targets to the UN – a trend that reflects a ‘downward pressure on climate ambition’ since President Trump’s election, Federico says.  
The US is the only country to have left the Paris Agreement, but it could embolden others to follow suit. Argentina and Indonesia are understood to be mooting an exit too.  

‘Does anybody think that the US was ever a fully reliable partner in the climate space? I think the answer is probably no,’ says Michael Showalter, Membership Officer of the IBA Environment, Health and Safety Law Committee. ‘The fossil fuel industry drives a lot of our politics […] and that surely is the case right now.’

It’s unclear, however, whether the White House’s efforts to spur more oil and gas extraction – already at a record high – will translate into more fossil fuels being drilled out of the ground, adds Showalter, who’s a partner at ArentFox Schiff in Chicago. 

Meanwhile, even as the US changes direction on climate, there have been innovative developments at a state level, for example in the form of the Climate Superfund Act in New York. 

What’s clear is that the US will exit the Paris Agreement significantly faster this time. The Agreement requires any country wishing to leave to wait three years after its entry into force – ie, November 2016 – before notifying their withdrawal. The withdrawal takes effect one year after notification to the UN.

During President Trump’s first term, these legal rules meant the US formally left the treaty a day after the 2020 election, which saw Joe Biden elected to the White House with a promise to rejoin the accord on his first day in office. The US was out of the Paris Agreement for less than three months, therefore. This time, the process to leave will only take a year. The US will formally exit the Agreement on 27 January 2026. From then on, the US will no longer have to submit carbon-cutting plans to the UN. However, an American delegation will still be able to attend UN climate talks as a party to its Framework Convention on Climate Change, the bedrock of global climate cooperation. 

Washington is also abandoning the climate targets announced by Biden a month before he left office, and references to the crisis have been removed from a number of US government websites. Further, the Trump administration has revoked and rescinded the country’s federal climate finance programme. The president has previously called his country’s financial pledges on the climate ‘unfair’.

The decision to turn off the climate funding tap represents one of the most tangible impacts for the rest of the world. The White House has formally cancelled $4bn in pledges made under the Obama and Biden administrations to the Green Climate Fund. The African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change said this would ‘leave vulnerable nations to bear an unjust burden’. 

The US rescinding its financial commitments will reduce further the already insufficient funds intended for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis. US contributions accounted for 12 per cent of climate finance for developed countries in 2022. 

Meanwhile, that the White House is turning its back on clean energy – for example, removing the electric vehicle mandate – at a time when the rest of the world is racing to secure the critical minerals and technologies expected to dominate future power systems could see the US lose out to rivals such as China. ‘If the Trump administration truly wants America to lead the global economy, become energy independent, and create good-paying American jobs, affordable energy, and clean air – then they must stay focused on growing our clean energy industry,’ says Gina McCarthy, a former White House national climate advisor.

And if the federal government isn’t taking the lead, others will fill the gap. McCarthy is a co-chair of America Is All In, a coalition of cities, states, businesses and local institutions that have vowed to accelerate climate action and strive to achieve existing carbon-cutting commitments. 

Although weakened, analysts agree that global climate action will continue. ‘The US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is unfortunate, but multilateral climate action has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s politics and policies,’ says Laurence Tubiana, Chief Executive Officer of the European Climate Foundation and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement. 

Details of the IBA’s engagement with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change can be found here.

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